[Pc_Support] Windows Vista for free? Three pronged attack on open source

[Bryan J. Smith]

"Justin M. Keyes" <m9u35g at gmail.com> wrote:
> If FOSS kills Microsoft,

Impossible.  Microsoft is an investment and marketing company
at this point.  Close to 50% of their income is now coming
from investments in other firms.

Microsoft is the OS/Applications distribution company like
"Take 2 Interactive" is the Gaming distribution company.

> another company will replace Microsoft.

Now that is true.  If it's not Microsoft, someone else will
take a 90% share of the OEM/distribution.

In fact, IBM and Google are 2 companies to watch.  Make no
mistake, IBM has strongarmed several companies now -- SCO,
HP, Sun, etc...  Google is getting interesting, although they
are not as arrogant as IBM, let alone Microsoft.

> once Microsoft offers open source, and people see the
> benefit,

I don't see how.  Microsoft's profit model dictates a
distributor lock of 90+%.  If Microsoft offers Open Source,
it means they are conceeding their profit model.

And I don't see that happening until they are a 75+%
investment firm.  That's at least another 5-10 years off,
although they could accelerate that given additional OEM and
customer refusals to deploy solutions.

I think Microsoft is playing a game right now.  Can they
force _all_ consumers -- corporate and superstore -- to adopt
the 2 year upgrade cycle.  So far, they seem to be doing well
at the superstore.  But the corporate dollar is still 80% of
the software market.

If they succeed, I don't see how Open Source breaks into
majority.  If they fail, I don't see Microsoft staying in the
software marketing as their profit model.


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